Ahead of the Union Budget for 2023-24, Budget makers have welcomed the global consensus view that India will remain one of the bright spots in calendar year 2023. But there is some alarm over the grim global situation and how that might impact the Centre's projections and assessments for next financial year. The big global headwinds include a deep and sustained recession in the West, including India's biggest trading partners in North America and Europe, continuing volatility in commodity markets, and renewed Covid-19 fears, as lifting of strict curbs by China could potentially lead to a massive spread again.
When industrial output and inflation fall simultaneously, though it is both a piece of good and bad news, taken together they can signal clear signs of an economic slowdown.
Subbarao's decision to keep interest rate unchanged at the policy review last month to contain inflation evoked criticism from industry and the government.
The weak April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) results of the largest listed specialty chemical maker, SRF, and multiple global headwinds for the sector are expected to weigh on the prospects of Indian specialty chemical companies in 2023-24 (FY24). Stocks in the sector (down 7-18 per cent) have underperformed the benchmarks (up over 10 per cent) in the past three months, and given the multiple challenges, the trend is likely to continue. Kotak Institutional Equities expects a very weak quarter (Q1FY24) for the sector due to destocking, demand weakness across certain critical end-use industries, and price erosion amid intense competition from Chinese suppliers.
The demand environment is expected to improve over the next three quarters, aided by a recovery in demand from the construction sector, following release of payments to contractors after elections.
Slowdown persists in China. India's GDP estimates for 2015-16 are liable to be pared; projections for 2016-17 are lacklustre.
Strong Q3 brings Infosys comfort amid macro risks.
Remonetisation exercise will eliminate cash squeeze by April 2017
Automobiles, banks, pharma and software firms growth drivers slowdown in cap goods, construction, power.
These stocks offer the best combination of maximum 'buy' recommendations from brokerages and share price upside over the next 12 months.
China's GDP took the worst hit since the disastrous Cultural Revolution in 1976, plummeting by 6.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 as the country took unprecedented measures to fight the coronavirus pandemic that brought the world's second largest economy to a standstill. China's gross domestic product stood at 20.65 trillion yuan (USD 2.91 trillion, approx) in the first quarter of 2020 amid the Covid-19 impact, down 6.8 per cent year on year, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday.
India's industrial production slowed down to 8.6 per cent in February 2008, compared to 11 per cent a year-ago, but belied apprehensions of a major slowdown after dismal figures for the previous month, giving RBI some headroom to tighten money supply for combating the surging inflation.
Among possible new members, former chief economic advisor Arvind Virmani's name is doing the rounds.
An executive of a private airline said even though volume picked up, it will be difficult for airlines to make money as fares have remained low even during festive season.
At a time when the tech sector witnessed a spree of layoffs and slowdown in new hiring, IT firms have opted for temporary jobs in order to turn some their fixed costs variable. Work fulfillment platform Awign has reported a 157 per cent rise in demand for such jobs in first half of 2023. Awign says most of the demand has arisen for highly-skilled tech professionals at mid-level and senior positions with 2-7 years' experience.
It feels govt may find it challenging to meet the revenue projections.
Goldman said India's economy is likely to expand by 6.7 per cent in the current fiscal and 5.8 per cent in 2009-10. The gross domestic product growth rate was 9 per cent in the previous fiscal.
Whether this remains under control in the coming months will depend on the future intensity and spread of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the effectiveness of the Indian government's response, points out A K Bhattacharya.
